10分钟，讲懂什么是泡沫经济！

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标签: 经济学 · 泡沫经济 · 商业思维 · 金融科普

What is a Bubble?

What is a bubble? Monkey buy banana. Banana cost one leaf. Monkey eat banana. Life good. One day banana stores say, banana harder to find. Banana rare. Banana valuable. Monkey has idea. Monkey think, if banana cost more tomorrow, monkey should buy more banana today. So monkey buy more banana to sell to other monkeys later for more leaves. Next day, banana now cost two leaves. Many monkeys start buying more bananas just to sell to other monkeys later for more leaves. Banana now costs five leaves. Monkeys are buying and selling bananas fast. Banana now costs ten leaves. Monkeys start hoarding lots of bananas. Not to eat, but to sell for more leaves. Banana now costs 20 leaves. Banana mania sets in.

"Who wants bananas? I got bananas." "I'll take one, two, three." "Buy, buy, buy, buy." "Good, now sell, sell, sell." "You want a full banana in this economy?"

Every monkey also thinks the price can only go up, which creates a loop. Monkeys buy banana, which makes banana price go up. Some more monkeys buy banana, which makes banana price go up. So more monkeys buy banana, which makes banana price go up.

Why Banks Make the Bubble Bigger (Leverage)

Why banks make bubble much bigger. When monkeys see banana price going up, some monkeys take out loans to invest even more. If prices go up, Monkey makes even more leaves. But if banana prices go down, Monkeys can lose everything and struggle to pay back leaves to Monkey Bank. Monkeys are buying more bananas than they can afford. This is called leverage.

Monkey will now explain leverage. OK, you monkeys ready? This is big brain time. Time to use big monkey brain. Monkey's smart, I believe in you. Basically, monkey buys 100 bananas for 100 leaves. Banana price go up 10 percent, monkeys bananas now worth 110 leaves. Monkey put in 100 leaves and now has 110, which is a 10 percent gain. Banana price go down 10 percent, monkeys bananas now worth 90 leaves. Monkey put in 100 leaves and now has 90, which is a 10% loss. Monkey gains or loses 10 leaves.

Leverage is when Monkey buys 100 bananas for 100 leaves but only uses 10 of his leaves and borrows the other 90 from Monkey Bank. Banana price go up 10%. Bananas now worth 110 leaves. Monkey still owes Bank 90 leaves, but Monkey now has 20 leaves. Monkey only put in 10 leaves of his own and now has 20, which is a 100% gain on his leaves. But if banana price go down just 10%, Monkey's bananas are now worth 90 leaves. Monkey still owes Bank 90 leaves, but Monkey now has zero leaves. Monkey put in 10 leaves and now has zero. And a debt to Monkey Bank. Do Monkeys understand?

Leverage basically lets Monkey use the bank's leaves to make bigger investments. But it's dangerous. Banana market doesn't need to crash. It just has to wiggle. And monkey can gain or lose everything. Monkeys get it? Yes? High five!

The Leverage Loop

But why does leverage make bubble bigger? Well, when banana prices go up, leveraged monkey feels like investing genius. And if many leveraged monkeys invest, it creates another loop. Monkeys borrow from banks to buy bananas. Banana price rises a little. Monkey's bananas worth more leaves. So monkeys borrow from banks to buy more bananas. So banana price rises further. So monkeys bananas worth more leaves.

Basically, if banana hype is the bubble, cheap loans are King Kong with an air pump. After many monkeys do this, a bubble is when the price of something go up way beyond what the thing is actually worth. Monkeys are buying bananas only to sell to other monkeys. But remember that banana going to be eaten.

How the Bubble Pops

How the bubble pops. Suddenly, monkeys get hungry. But monkeys can't eat all these bananas at once. Monkeys start to think bananas aren't worth 100 leaves. Bananas are everywhere. They grow on trees. Monkeys start to realize banana is just... banana. Monkeys panic. Many monkeys start to sell their bananas.

MonkeyNews tells Monkey Nation: "This just in, banana not that rare, banana not that valuable." Monkey YouTubers make banana commentary videos. Price of banana dips. Monkeys who borrowed leaves are in trouble. Monkey banks force monkeys to sell their bananas to cover debts, which creates yet another loop. Banana price drops a little. Leveraged monkeys lose all leaves. Monkey banks demand their leaves back. Monkeys forced to sell bananas. Banana price falls further. Leveraged monkeys lose more leaves. Monkey banks demand more leaves back. Monkeys forced to sell more bananas.

Price of banana drops from 100 to 50 leaves, 20, 10, 5, 1, 1, 1, and eventually just half a leaf. Monkeys get desperate.

"Please buy my banana." "No, please buy my banana." "Will someone buy my banana?" "Why did I put my life savings into bananas? They grow on trees!" "I gotta get out, sell, sell, sell!" "Can I pay in bananas?" "Don't be ridiculous." "I can't believe I fell for it again."

Every monkey tries to dump their bananas. And while some manage to sell, many monkeys are stuck holding too many bananas.

The Aftermath and How to Spot a Bubble

Some monkeys also make many leaves. And monkeys who didn't buy banana still have their leaves. "Oh man, that was some nap. What'd I miss? Oh my god!"

But most monkeys don't know when bubble will burst, or if bubble is even a bubble. But when bubble does burst, and price crashes, most monkeys lose many leaves. Monkeys who bought bananas late paid too much, and now bananas worthless. And monkeys who borrowed leaves from monkey banks now stuck in debt.

How to spot a bubble? Monkeys generally have trouble seeing a bubble before it's too late. "Oh boy, what a nice view. AHHHHHH!"

But if monkeys look carefully, there are some red flags. Red flags like average monkeys making many leaves very easily. Lots of monkeys borrowing leaves from monkey bank to invest in same thing. Banana market going bananas. "I'm so sorry, please subscribe." Or lots of monkeys saying banana can only go up.

Bubble vs. Breakthrough (The AI Bubble Explained)

Bubble versus breakthrough. Not all new things are a bubble waiting to pop. Some things actually useful after all the hype. For example, monkey use candle, but monkey cold, monkey dark, wind not helping. Evening monkey discover electricity. Monkey warm, monkey has lights, wind is good. But some new things are not so useful.

The AI bubble explained with bananas. One day monkey discovers Smart Monkey. Smart Monkey can write, can draw, can even do taxes. But when Monkey looks closely, writing is incorrect, drawing is off, and tax is fraudulent. But many monkeys think Smart Monkey will be the next big thing, even though Smart Monkey doesn't make any leaves. Every monkey thinks Smart Monkey is rich because he has many bananas. But actually, Big Banana Company just gives Smart Monkey leaves just so Smart Monkey can buy banana, which makes Smart Monkey look like business genius. But he still doesn't make any leaves of his own or know how to draw. He also drinks way too much water.

So remember, monkeys, a bubble is when price of things go way higher than what that thing is actually worth. Don't fall for the hype. Bananas are for eating. And as always, apes, together, strong!